Even if the US assassinates Iran’s spiritual leader in order to install a pro-Western leader, the likelihood of that happening seems very low.
Although protests against their leader were intense in the country before his death, foreign news reporters in the country now say that a divided opinion has been created in the country.
While the young people, who are demanding greater freedom from the shackles of Islam and are shouting slogans expressing joy over the death of the previous leader and demanding a new regime, an equal or greater segment of the population is deeply angry that the US killed their leader.
Therefore, the likelihood of a popular struggle against the current regime in the country is very low. (There are more reasons for this at the end of this article)
However, Trump is still trying to create a struggle in Iran, overthrow the current government and install a leader who is in his favor. For this, he has been inciting the people of the country. Sending a message called "Take Over Your Government", he urges the people of the country to 'use this as an opportunity to establish a new government'.
However, when analyzing the country's political structure and the appointment of a new leader, it seems that it is very difficult to fulfill Trump's dream.
I will explain the reasons for this below.
After the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the possibility of the new leader being a pro-American is very low. There are several main reasons for this:
- The current governance system
Iran's governance structure is based on an anti-Western ideology. The Provisional Council and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that currently govern the country are composed of very hardliners. They will never allow a pro-American leader to come to power. - Who could be the successor?
The key figures being considered by the Assembly of Experts, which will elect the next Supreme Leader, are almost all hardliners:
- Mojtaba Khamenei (son of Ali Khamenei): He has close ties to the security forces and is expected to continue his father's hardline policies.
- Alireza Arafi: He is a powerful cleric who strongly defends anti-Western ideologies.
- Current military situation
With the death of the Iranian leader in the face of American and Israeli attacks, anti-Americanism in the country has become stronger than ever. At such a time, it is politically impossible for a leader who supports America to take control. - The only way for a pro-American leader to come to power
For a pro-American leader to come to power, the current 'Islamic Republic' regime must completely collapse and a new government must be established through a popular revolution. Although the protesters currently taking to the streets are expecting such a change, the military still holds firm in power.
Summary:
The future leader will most likely be a hardliner with military power. They are likely to adopt a more confrontational approach with America.
